Ethereum gained over 10% in the rally over the last 24 hours, returning to the $2,000 area for the first time in weeks of selling. However, enthusiasm quickly met the month’s toughest resistance: the $1,995–$2,015 range, where over 1 million ETH were purchased in recent weeks and where those at breakeven are ready to sell.
The current picture of Ethereum at $2,000 is the classic one of a technical bounce hitting a supply wall. Upside exists, but on-chain data shows the market is still far from resolving its bearish structure.
The Wall: 1.01 Million ETH Costing Between $1,995 and $2,015
The $2,000 level is not just any psychological resistance. On-chain data reveals that the market’s largest cost basis cluster sits exactly between $1,995 and $2,015: over 1.01 million ETH were bought in that range. Those who bought there are currently at breakeven or slightly underwater, and a significant portion of these holders tends to sell when prices return to their entry levels—creating supply pressure that acts as a ceiling.
The market confirmed this almost immediately: on February 26, Ethereum tested that zone and then gave way, repeating the “sell the pop” pattern seen in previous weeks. There is no guarantee that resistance will hold indefinitely, but breaking through requires a demand influx strong enough to absorb all that waiting supply.
Selling Pressure Dropped by 90%
Not everything points downward. One of the most encouraging data points from recent days concerns flows to exchanges: on February 7, ETH inflows to trading platforms hit a peak of 1.06 million ETH in a single day—a sign of potential heavy selling pressure. Since then, that figure has plummeted to around 126,000 ETH: a 90% reduction in less than three weeks.
Fewer ETH on exchanges means less immediate selling pressure. Investors have stopped moving their coins to markets, and historically, this type of flow reversal precedes periods of stabilization followed by recovery.
Long-Term Holders Return to Accumulation
Another signal to watch is the behavior of long-term holders (LTH). After weeks of gradual exits to the market, the last two days have seen a reversal: net accumulation of over 6,000 ETH among addresses classified as LTH. This is still a small move compared to historical peaks, but it flips the flow’s sign—and LTHs are historically the most reliable buyers during times of weakness.
The RSI also shows a relevant technical divergence: while prices have recorded lower lows since early February, the RSI has formed higher lows. This pattern often signals weakening bearish pressure before a reversal, though alone it is not enough to invert a downtrend structure.
The Context: -31.75% Since the Start of the Year
All of this unfolds against a backdrop of a still very difficult long-term trend. Ethereum closed January 2026 in the red, and February worsened the situation: the year-to-date decline exceeds 31.75%, one of the worst starts in the token’s history. The monthly drop in February stands at around 17%.
As already seen with Bitcoin—which is experiencing its worst month since 2022—ETH is also suffering from a mix of macro risk aversion, Trump tariffs, and bearish positioning built up over weeks. Yesterday’s Bitcoin short squeeze pulled Ethereum higher as well, but without an independent fundamental catalyst, the rebound struggles to become structural.
ETH/BTC at Lows: Ethereum’s Structural Problem
There is one element that distinguishes Ethereum’s situation from Bitcoin’s: the ETH/BTC ratio is at multi-year lows. Ethereum is losing relative ground against the market
